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1/28/24 FREE PICK - Patrick Mahomes OVER 23.5 Completions

1/28/24 FREE PICK - Patrick Mahomes OVER 23.5 Completions

The best of the AFC matches up on Sunday afternoon when the #1 seed Baltimore Ravens host the 4.5-point underdog Kansas City Chiefs. Where is the best underlying player prop value? Look no further than the defending Super Bowl MVP, Chiefs QB, Patrick Mahomes. Currently, oddsmakers have his prop lines listed at O/U 23.5 completions and O/U 239.5 passing yards. While the yardage here is tempting, the Chiefs haven't used the deep ball threat successfully much this year, so we lock in on the completions. The Chiefs rarely find themselves as underdogs and this is only Mahomes' 2nd ever road playoff game. If the Chiefs are to win, it's going to be because of the best QB in the NFL. If they are going to lose, they will most certainly be airing it out. Mahomes went for 24+ completions in 11 of 16 (69%) regular season starts and, in particular, cashed this line in 4 of his last 5 (80%) outright losses. He averaged 25 completions/game on the season, and we know Andy Reid will trust putting the ball in his hands when it matters most. Because of their elaborate short passing game, the Chiefs actually rank near the bottom of the NFL in yards/completion. Mahomes should be using tons of screen passes and check downs to beat the Baltimore zone. The last key here is the matchup. Although Baltimore has a great defense, they actually rank 23rd in the NFL in opponent completions/game. This is because they often play with a lead and force their opponent into passing situations all game. There is a lot to like here with our AFC Championship free play - Take Patrick Mahomes OVER 23.5 Completions! 

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